Expected Fantasy Points: 2024 RB Regression Candidates (Fantasy Football) (2024)

June 29, 2024

Welcome to the first article of a four-part series where we will use the metric Expected Fantasy Points to identify regression candidates for the 2024 season. If you followed our Expected Points series in the DFS pass, you already know that volume and usage matter significantly for fantasy football. Since Expected Fantasy Points (or xFP) is a measure of usage, it highlights the most valuable players for our lineups. However, rarely do players ever hit their expected point value as various factors will impact their actual production on the field. Injuries, quarterback play, or even offensive line performance could either boost or decrease their efficiency.

With that being said, how do we measure efficiency and why does it matter? We can use the metric Fantasy Points Over Expected (FPOE). Simply put, it’s the difference between their Expected Fantasy Point value and their actual fantasy production. For example, this past season, Jonathan Taylor averaged 14.6 half-PPR points per game. Based on the average value of his opportunities in the Colts’ offense, his Expected Fantasy value equated to 12.9 xFP. As a result, Taylor averaged +1.7 Fantasy Points Over Expected in 10 games. FPOE is a less reliable metric during the season as a player’s efficiency can fluctuate weekly. However, season over season we can use it to identify regression candidates. For context, since 2013, 72% of Running Backs have experienced regression in FPOE year over year. In other words, if a player performed very efficiently last season, we can realistically expect their FPOE to drop this year. On the other hand, if a player is inefficient, we usually see their efficiency improve the following season. As a result, by highlighting the most efficient and inefficient running backs, we can quickly identify regression candidates using FPOE.

For a more detailed breakdown of my Expected Fantasy Points model and how the metric is calculated, check out my series primer from the 2023 season.

Recapping the 2023 Season

Charted above are the top 40 running backs in half-PPR scoring from last season. As mentioned earlier, Expected Fantasy Points (on the x-axis) is the more predictive metric. Ideally, we should target players on the far right of this chart as these running backs are the RB1s for their respective teams. The y-axis represents Fantasy Points Over Expected. Players located above the horizontal dotted line were some of the most efficient running backs last season. These players are also the most likely candidates to experience negative regression. Players who finished below the dotted line underperformed relative to their usage and are candidates for positive regression.

Before we dive into our regression candidates, below are a few stats and observations from this past season:

• Christian McCaffrey led all running backs in half-PPR scoring in 2023 with 22.4 per game. As you can see above, his usage value (xFP) was also the highest among running backs at 17.9 Expected Points. That’s the second-highest usage value of his career, behind only his legendary campaign back in 2019.
• Alvin Kamara’s impressive campaign may be slightly overshadowed by his disappointing end to the season, finishing outside of the top 12 in each of his final four games. Despite that, Kamara was still the RB3 in Expected Fantasy Points, behind only Kyren Williams and Christian McCaffrey. In fact, if we remove his Week 17 performance (left early due to an ankle injury), Kamara averaged over 17.0 Expected Fantasy Points in 2023, which would place him right next to Williams and McCaffrey’s usage. While he is approaching the end of his prime at age 29, Kamara should remain a focal point of the Saints’ offense as their backfield remains unchanged heading into this season.
• We had two rookies rank within the top 20 in usage value in 2023 – Jahmyr Gibbs and Bijan Robinson. For all the concerns that David Montgomery would limit his rookie season, Gibbs would still finish the year as an RB1 in both production and usage. His Expected Fantasy Points (13.3) would rank RB11 among ALL rookie running backs drafted since 2013, highlighting just how involved he was in the Lions’ offense. While his usage will inevitably fluctuate with Montgomery still on the roster, Gibbs should be primed for another borderline RB1 season behind one of the best offensive lines in the league.
• The Cincinnati Bengals totaled the lowest Expected Fantasy Points at the running back position in 2023, in part because they ranked second in the league in Pass Rate Over Expected (+6.5 percentage points). Despite that, Joe Mixon still finished the season as the RB10 in usage, accounting for nearly 83% of the Bengals’ xFP at the running back position. With Mixon traded to the Texans, Zack Moss is set to emerge as the lead running back in Zac Taylor’s offense. Assuming Taylor does not deviate from his running back usage in recent years, Moss has the upside to produce top-20 numbers this upcoming season.
• On the other hand, the Atlanta Falcons finished with the most Expected Fantasy Points at the running back position, combining for 371.7 xFP. With Arthur Smith taking his play-calling to the Steelers, we could see similar, heavy usage from Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. This likely also means we should temper expectations for Russell Wilson and the passing game, as Arthur Smith passed the ball at the seventh-lowest rate in the league last season.
• It was a slower start to the 2023 season for Jonathan Taylor after holding out through the first month of football. However, Taylor dominated in his final eight games. From Week 7 onward, Taylor was the RB3 in half-PPR scoring (16.8) and the RB9 in Expected Points (14.1). Even with limited targets, Taylor accounted for nearly 37% of the team’s total opportunities. With a healthy Anthony Richardson and an above-average offensive line, Taylor is primed for a bounce-back season in 2024.

Positive Regression Candidates

Josh Jacobs was by far the most inefficient running back last season as he scored nearly 3.5 fantasy points BELOW expected, a four-point decline in FPOE from his elite season in 2022. From a usage standpoint, Jacobs remained heavily involved for the Raiders as he still ranked within the top five in Expected Fantasy Points (15.9). However, with inconsistent quarterback play, Jacobs struggled to find the end zone, finishing the season with 4.3 touchdowns below expected. Fortunately, he now finds himself in a much better situation after signing with the Green Bay Packers this offseason. From a quarterback perspective, Jordan Love presents a significant upgrade from both Jimmy Garoppolo and Aidan O’Connell. The Packers also continued to invest in their offensive line, drafting Jordan Morgan with their first-round pick this year. In addition, with Matt LaFleur ranking fifth last season in EPA per Play (0.075), I would be shocked if Jacobs’ efficiency did not regress to the mean with his ecosystem vastly improved. Assuming he receives the majority of the running back opportunities, I fully expect a bounce-back campaign this year.

Similar to Jacobs, Tony Pollard had an inefficient campaign with the Cowboys and now finds himself on a new team. In fact, Pollard ranked dead last in Touchdowns Over Expected (-7.9), scoring only six times on 319 total opportunities. We also saw his yards per touch decline by 27%, totaling 62 fewer yards compared to 2022 – despite receiving 75 more opportunities this past year. In an interview towards the end of the season, Pollard admitted that his leg injury did impact his comfort level on the field and that it slowly improved as the season progressed. With over a year removed from the leg fracture, could we see Pollard recapture his explosiveness in Tennessee? I would not be shocked if that happened, especially after the Titans heavily invested in their offensive line this offseason. The bigger question mark for Pollard is his potential usage. With former offensive coordinator Brian Callahan now calling the plays, it remains to be seen if this offense will mirror what we saw from the Bengals over the last four seasons. If so, Pollard could be in line for significant volume in a more explosive, pass-heavy offense.

Coming off of a devastating knee injury, it was both shocking and encouraging to see Javonte Williams play 16 games and command over 30% of the team’s opportunities in 2023. From a usage standpoint, Williams ranked as the RB23 in Expected Fantasy Points (11.8), but would only average 9.7 half-PPR points per game (RB32). In short, he was extremely inefficient as he likely was still recovering from his knee injury, scoring nearly 2.0 points BELOW expected in 2023. So why should we expect his efficiency to regress this upcoming season? To answer that question, I highly recommend reading Matthew Betz’s article on the impact of ACL surgery on running backs. Betz highlights that running backs are more likely to return to form in their second season post-surgery. And considering his age, draft capital, and athletic profile, Williams should have a much better campaign in 2024. Assuming he continues to command RB2 usage for Sean Payton’s offense, Williams projects to be a value at his current ADP.

Negative Regression Candidates

The Dolphins running backs are primed for some negative regression this season as De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert were two of the most efficient running backs for fantasy football. Both players finished the season with +5.0 fantasy points above expected, placing them in rare company. Since 2013, we have only seen nine running backs exceed +5.0 FPOE in a single season. Among the running backs who played a minimum of eight games the following year, 86% of them regressed to the mean, averaging only +1.74 fantasy points above expected. The only running back who did not regress was Todd Gurley from 2017 to 2018, finishing as the RB1 in back-to-back seasons. Because they relied so heavily on their efficiency to produce, Mostert and Achane could experience a significant decline in fantasy production this season. For context, both running backs finished outside of the top 24 in Expected Fantasy Points (usage value) but finished within the top five in half-PPR points per game. In other words, if their efficiency does truly regress, they are unlikely to repeat as RB1s unless their usage improves. With the Dolphins likely continuing to employ a running back by committee, there is a realistic scenario where Achane and Mostert are less efficient this year, potentially finishing outside of the top 12 or top 24 in points per game.

We briefly talked about Christian McCaffrey and his elite usage in an earlier segment. On top of that, he was also one of the most efficient fantasy running backs this past year. Not only did he average a career-high 6.0 yards per touch, he also scored +4.5 touchdowns above expected. Keep in mind that McCaffrey led all running backs in Expected Touchdowns (16.5) this past season, yet he still managed to exceed that mark by a decent margin. Knowing that he averaged +4.3 fantasy points over expected, McCaffrey is unlikely to exceed that value in 2024. However, it may not matter for fantasy purposes as long as he continues to receive elite usage. For context, even if his FPOE regressed to zero, McCaffrey would still average around 17.9 half-PPR points based on his usage. That would have ranked as the RB2 last season. So as long as he remains healthy, McCaffrey should be considered a top-five fantasy running back considering his tremendous usage in Kyle Shanahan’s offense.

2023 Running Back Leaders in
Touchdowns Over Expected (TDOE):

1. Raheem Mostert: +11.6 🤯
2. De'Von Achane: +6.4 🔥
3. Derrick Henry: +5.0
4. Gus Edwards: +4.8
5. Christian McCaffrey: +4.5

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Mostert's +11.6 TDOE is the most efficient season among all Running Backs since 2013 pic.twitter.com/rZTG3sWSHK

— Marvin Elequin (@FF_MarvinE) June 29, 2024

It was an impressive campaign for Kyren Williams, who finished as a top-two running back in both production and usage this past season. However, Williams is likely bound for regression after scoring nearly +3.3 touchdowns over expected and +2.8 fantasy points over expected per game. Historically, about 80% of running backs who score between two and three FPOE experienced regression the following year. As a result, even behind a dominant offensive line, Williams’ efficiency could realistically decline this upcoming season. Regardless, the far more concerning aspect of his fantasy outlook is his usage. With Blake Corum joining the Rams’ backfield, Williams will likely see a reduced number of touches this year. Especially if Corum manages to steal some opportunities in the red zone, Williams is unlikely to produce another top-five campaign.

Considering that 80% of running backs regress to the mean after averaging between two and three Fantasy Points Over Expected, we should monitor James Conner, David Montgomery, and Brian Robinson, who also meet those criteria. Not only is their efficiency expected to decline this year, but all three running backs are also at risk of losing opportunities. The one I am most worried about is Robinson, who has the lowest usage value of these running backs, only ranking RB30 in Expected Points this past season. If his efficiency regresses and Austin Ekeler manages to siphon away a significant number of touches, Robinson will likely be nothing more than an RB3 option for fantasy managers this season.

Aidan O'ConnellAlvin KamaraAnthony RichardsonAtlanta FalconsAustin EkelerBijan RobinsonBrian Robinson Jr.Christian McCaffreyCincinnati BengalsDavid MontgomeryDevon AchaneGreen Bay PackersJahmyr GibbsJames ConnerJavonte WilliamsJaylen WarrenJimmy GaroppoloJoe MixonJonathan TaylorJordan LoveJosh JacobsKyren WilliamsNajee HarrisRaheem MostertRussell WilsonTodd Gurley IITony PollardZack Moss Expectation ReportExpected Fantasy PointsExpected PointsFantasy RBsRBsRegression