Election latest: Sunak questioned on 'nightmare' poll - as Tories employ 'risky' strategy (2024)

Veterans minister Johnny Mercer is speaking to Sky News this morning.

Asked about his party lagging an average of 20 points in the polls, he says the election this year was "always going to be tough after 14 years in power".

He says the campaign has "been up and down" - but that he hasn't heard the polls reflected on the doorstep.

Mr Mercer attacks Labour over their record on education - saying that the number of children in good or outstanding schools "halved" in his area of Portsmouth when there were Labour MPs in the area.

The Conservative candidate is also asked about some of his campaign literature, which appears to avoid too much explicit Conservative branding (read more here).

Mr Mercer responds that "it's blue, it's got me on it, I am talking about my record in government.

"So, which part of it is not clear that I'm in the Conservative Party?"

He says more scrutiny should be put on Labour's campaign - claiming they are not being challenged on their prospective tax and spend policies.

Overnight, Labour went on the attack against the Conservatives over the state of the NHS.

They claim that, if the Tories stay in government for the next five years, waiting lists could rise to around 10 million appointments.

The overall NHS waiting list climbed to an estimated 7.57 million treatments at the end of April, affecting 6.33 million patients, according to NHS England figures released on Thursday.

But there are doubts over the veracity of Labour's claims - which are reached by extrapolating the growth in appointments under various periods while the Conservatives have been in power.

They do not use the data from the pandemic.

In May, Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) economist Max Warner said the 10 million figure was "highly unlikely".

Mr Warner said Labour's commitment to eliminating elective waiting times above 18 weeks by the end of the next parliament "would represent a major improvement, undoing nearly a decade of worsening in NHS waiting times in just five years".

He said: "Delivering on all these promises would be expensive: it would almost certainly require real-terms funding growth upwards of 3% per year.

"Beyond some small amounts of 'additional' funding, the Labour manifesto provides no detail about the overall funding the NHS will receive in the next parliament."

Shadow health secretary Wes Streeting said: "If the Conservatives are given another five years in charge, waiting lists will hit 10 million, and more and more patients will be forced to pay to go private to get treated on time.

"That's the choice for patients under the Tories: pain or private? Patients face double taxation on health: they pay their taxes, and then pay the Tory health tax if they want to be treated on time."

By Professor Will Jennings, Sky News elections analyst

Even a poll-obsessive like me would have to admit that during election campaigns we often spend too much time focusing on the election 'horse race' - who is up and who is down in the polls - on an almost hourly basis.

Even in this election, where Labour has been well ahead of the Conservatives from the outset, the focus has been on how much.

Figures for the Labour lead span a huge range from 16 to 25 points. And now there's talk of "crossover".

Has Nigel Farage led Reform past the Tories into second place for the first time in a general election campaign?

There's a 10-point difference between pollsters in the figures reported for Reform UK starting at nine points and reaching 19.

The unprecedented nature of what the top end of these results suggest means we could be heading for a seismic reordering of the political landscape on 4 July. Alternatively, many pollsters could end up with egg on their faces.

What lessons can we learn from polling at previous British general elections?

Perhaps the most fundamental thing is that polls become more informative about the result as election day nears.

Read the full analysis below:

Welcome back to another day on the campaign trail.

Today is set to be a bit quieter than a weekday - and the prime minister is still away on international duty.

After attending the G7 over the past few days in Italy, he is heading to a Ukraine Peace conference in Switzerland.

He is attending Trooping the Colour in London in between, however.

Meanwhile, Labour will be campaigning on health - and has claimed NHS waiting lists could hit 10 million.

Deputy leader Angela Rayner will be campaigning on working conditions in Scotland.

Coming up this morning on Sky News:

• 7.15am: Veterans minister Johnny Mercer;
• 8.15am: Shadow work and pensions secretary Liz Kendall.

Thanks for joining us on another packed day in the election campaign.

Nigel Farage said he could be the official "voice of opposition" to Labour after a poll showed Reform UK pulling slightly ahead of the Conservatives - and said his party could get more than six million votes.

He also demandedto be involved in a leaders' general election event next week.

At the G7 summit in Italy, Rishi Sunak brushed off the YouGov poll result and said a vote for Reform would "give a blank cheque to Labour".

Elsewhere, the parliamentary watchdog said it was "satisfied" that Scottish Conservatives leader Douglas Ross didn't break expenses rules after "reviewing" media reports that he claimed for journeys to his job as a football assistant referee.

And our political editor Beth Rigbylifted the lid on what it was like to prepare, execute (and almost miss) Sky News' big leaders event on Wednesday night.

We are are now pausing coverage for the evening. Join us on the campaign trail again in the morning. Goodnight!

Asked if he'll be voting Tory on 4 July, former justice secretary David Gauke says he is "considering his options".

He says it wouldn't benefit the country to have a "massive" Labour majority.

He adds that he'd be "minded" to vote Conservative if the candidate near him was "someone who would stand up to Nigel Farage" and stop the Tories from becoming a "fully fledged obvious party of the right".

"But... I think there is going to be a big battle in the Conservative Party at the end of this process, as to whether they open the door to Nigel Farage," he says.

Earlier today we sat down withDavid Gauke, who previously served as justice secretary under Theresa May.

Asked how the Conservative election campaign is going, Mr Gauke said "it's not going at all" if the polls are anything to go by.

He said the plan would have been to "substantially" reduce Labour's lead over the past few weeks - but added "there's no sign of that".

Mr Gauke pointed to "difficulty" over Rishi Sunak's D-Day disaster, but he also said the party's plan to "squeeze the support of Reform hasn't worked".

Questioned about the YouGov poll which shows Reform edging ahead of the Tories, the former politician said there's "real concernabout the future of centre right politics as a consequence of the rise of Nigel Farage".

He said the rise of Reform will "help Labour win a bigger majority".

But he added that it'll also pile pressure on the Conservatives "in a way that... [it's] bad news for the country if what we end up with in British politics is a Labour Party versus essentially a populist party of the right that jettisons any attempt to be a mainstream centre right party".

Conservatives 'not deserving of public trust'

Mr Gauke said the "problems" the Tories are facing are a "consequence of moving... essentially to the right of the party in choosing Boris Johnson and then... Liz Truss".

He said the party is "neither competent nor deserving of the trust of the British public".

He added that Mr Sunak is partly a "victim of the circ*mstances he has inherited".

Alison McGovern is next questioned on a recent comment by economists that Labour and the Conservatives are involved in a "conspiracy of silence" with people over the state of public finances.

The shadow employment minister says it's "helpful" for parties' plans to be "scrutinised" - but suggests the comment by the Institute for Fiscal Studies is based on "what would happen if we don't get that growth in our economy".

She says Labour has a "broader plan for growth" which will be supported by investing in public services.

Asked how Labour can be trusted in the face of the IFS's analysis, Ms McGovern says: "I welcome the scrutiny, but I would say we've got a plan that is both setting out immediate first steps and also a longer term mission to change our economy and make it more sustainable.

"It's the combination of those two things that will make sure we don't have any return to austerity," she says.

Next up is shadow employment ministerAlison McGovern, who is discussing the plans for mental health which Labour has been campaigning on today.

Ms McGovern says people have had a "really hard time" in recent years and mental health support needs to be expanded.

She says it isn't just about having sufficient public services, but is about Labour's plan for growth as well, noting that too many people are unable to work or "do the kind of work that they really want to".

"That's holding back our economy too," she says.

Host Ali Fortescue puts to the shadow minister that Labour is pinning a lot of its hopes on economic growth - and asks what will happen if it's not achieved.

Ms McGovern says the country has seen over the past 14 years of Conservative rule "what can happen if the economy doesn't grow".

But pressed on what Labour's plans are, she says the party has set out where it can "bring money in reasonably" through "tax that should be collected" - and has laid out where it can invest in public services.

"We've got a plan for growth that will help our economy move on," she says.

We're bringing you more from Rishi Sunak's news conference at the G7 summit now, as the PM is being asked about yesterday's YouGov poll.

The poll - described by our political correspondent Rob Powell as a "nightmare" for the Tories - put Reform ahead of the Conservatives for the first time.

Asked why Tory voters appear to be turning to Reform, Mr Sunak says: "I think we're only halfway through this campaign and the Conservative Party and me are going to fight for every single vote until the last day.

"And you know, what you saw this week was actually an important moment in the campaign because the only poll that matters is the one on July 4.

"What you did see this week is the two leading parties put out their manifestos for the future of our country, and there's a very clear choice."

He adds that if the poll were replicated on election day, this would be "handing a blank cheque to Keir Starmer to increase people's taxes on their home, their car, their job, their pension, their house, that's what it will do".

"So I'm going to continue fighting very hard to make sure everyone understands the choice that's ahead of them," he says.